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Loading ...I was gawking at Tom Benjamin’s page the other day, reading back over some old entries, when I noticed this comment from David Johnson (who runs Hockey Analysis):
I think the 2004 Tampa team was one of the luckiest teams ever and far luckier than Carolina this year. They played in the easiest division, never had a single serious injury (regular season or playoffs), and had an extremely easy playoff schedule playing the 8th seed (Islanders) in round 1, the 7th seed (Canadians) in round 2 and a beat up injury riddled 3rd seed (Flyers) in the 3rd round only to meet a 6th seed in the finals.
The only “real” difference between Tampa 2004 and Carolina 2006 is the injury bug. And the single dumbest part of that comment, IMO? The “easiest division” crack. Sorry Dave, but it can more convincingly be argued that the Central is the easiest division–just ask the Red Wings, who fatten their standings point totals on the Blue Jackets, Blues, and Blackhawks every season.
The title of this post is Tampa’s record vs. the Southeast Division in the 03-04 season. 13 wins, 8 losses, 3 ties. Ten of those 13 wins came against two teams: Washington, and Carolina. And they didn’t even perform the best against that division–they performed the best against the Atlantic Division, with a record of 16-4-0-0. They lost thrice to the Isles and once to the Rangers, and ran the table with the Pens, Flyers, and Devils. Perhaps the Atlantic Division was really the “easiest division”, since the Lightning had such a cakewalk.
Just out of curiosity, during Ragnarok I decided to re-seed the playoff teams by only accounting their games vs. teams not in their own division–and this is what I came up with:
EAST:
Ottawa: 79 pts (1st) (record v. own division: 9-10-4-1)
Tampa: 77 pts (2nd) (record v. own division: 13-8-3-0)
Toronto: 75 pts (3rd) (record v. own division: 13-9-2-0)
Boston: 73 pts (4th on tiebreaker with MTL) (record v. own division: 13-6-2-3)
Montreal: 73 (5th on tiebreaker with BOS) (record v. own division: 9-13-1-1)
New Jersey: 70 pts (6th on three-way tiebreaker with PHI and NYI) (record v. own division: 14-7-2-1)
Philadelphia: 70 pts (7th on three-way tiebreaker with NJD and NYI) (record v. own division: 13-6-5-0)
NYIslanders: 70 pts (8th on three-way tiebreaker with PHI and NJD) (record v. own division: 8-11-3-2)
WEST:
Detroit: 77 pts (1st) (record v. own division: 15-7-1-1)
Vancouver: 74 (2nd) (record v. own division: 10-7-6-1)
Dallas: 72 pts. (3rd) (record v. own division: 9-8-6-1)
San Jose: 71 pts (4th on tiebreaker with COL) (record v. own division: 15-6-3-0)
Colorado: 71 pts (5th on tiebreaker with SJS) (record v. own division: 12-7-4-1)
Edmonton: 70 (6th) (record v. own division: 7-12-3-2) (Ouch, Oiler fans)
Calgary: 66 (7th) (record v. own division: 11-7-4-2)
Nashville: 65 (8th) (record v. own division: 11-9-2-2)
St. Louis: 64 (miss playoffs) (record v. own division: 12-9-2-1)
What does this show? Division games are important, but winning against teams not in your division is just as important (the Lightning were a dismal 9-7-2 vs. the Northeast Division, including being swept by Ottawa–that’s what hurts them in this model, in my opinion). And really? There wasn’t a whole lot of difference between Tampa ‘04 and Carolina ‘06, save for a lack of injuries for Tampa in ‘04 and the fact that the Devils were the third seed in the East in ‘06. Buffalo was just as decimated by injury this season as Philadelphia was two years ago, and the Oilers were an eight seed this year.
Does that mean that the Hurricanes were “just lucky” as Tampa supposedly was during their Cup season, or that the Hurricanes did a better job of following the informal Special Forces motto “Adapt, Improvise, Overcome”?
Really, every team is lucky when you think about it. If Tomas Kaberle didn’t cough up the puck to Jaro, Diet Cola of Evil during Game 6 of the 2002 ECF, he may not have passed it to Marty Gelinas for the game-winner. If Patrick Roy hadn’t decided to be his usual showboating justice-dodging self and pull his Statue of Liberty act during Game 6 of the 2002 WCF, the Red Wings may not have wound up winning that game and humiliating the Avs in a Game 7 at the Nexus of Evil. If Steve Smith hadn’t own-goaled in Game 7 of the 1986 Campbell Conference Final or Claude Lemieux hadn’t scored in OT of Game 7 in the 1986 Wales Conference Semifinal, then the epic matchup we saw a little over a month ago may have first taken place 20 years ago. If Scott Norwood hadn’t sent that kick wide right, the Bills would have a Super Bowl ring now. If Maurice Richard hadn’t been suspended for something he probably shouldn’t have been suspended for, maybe the Canadiens wouldn’t have been so fired up to win 5 Cups in a row starting the year after his suspension ended. Who knows? Who can say?
And by the way, if you ignored all the division games this season, the ‘Canes would have been first in the East by a good four points or so and the Oilers would have been third seed in the West. Interpret that as you will.
How can anyone use the now p***-poor “Southleast” excuse? The Southeast Division was FAR from the easiest this past season…even the bottom feeder teams in Atlanta, Florida, and Washington (that team is going to be scary good *very soon*…I did not look forward to playing the Capitals last season AND I certainly still don’t this upcoming season) could give top seeds fits on a good night. That alone made the Canes winning the Southeast in spades like they did *that much more impressive*.
Really, the “easy Division” excuse is stupid overall, even if it is too easy to point out like it was with the Central last season. Though, the Red Wings shot that “excuse/theory” down with their going down in the First Round to a “mere” number eight. Anyway, the Blackhawks and Blue Jacks were their usual selves…but who knew the Blues would suck as horribly as they did? I mean, I knew Pronger meant a bit to their corps, but damn…
“The “easiest division” crack. Sorry Dave, but it can more convincingly be argued that the Central is the easiest division–just ask the Red Wings, who fatten their standings point totals on the Blue Jackets, Blues, and Blackhawks every season.”
Ummm, no, not in 2003-04. Three teams made the playoffs from the central division in 2003-04. Three teams from the central division had 90+ points in 2003-04. Only one team (Tampa) from the Atlantic division had more than 78 points in 2003-04. The Atlantic was by far the worst division in 2003-04 and Tampa had a very easy route to the Stanley Cup in 2003-04.
As for Carolina, they had a tougher route but still relatively easy. I am pretty sure they would have lost to Buffalo had the Buffalo defense been healthy. And they were pretty lucky to have Cam Ward get crazy hot in goal considering Ward had the second worst regular season goals against average and 4th worst regular season save %. Both Carolina and Tampa rode hot goalies to the Stanley Cup but honestly having the hot goalie has always mattered most and will matter even more in the salary cap era where no team can stock up with star players to overcome an average goalie.
“I am pretty sure they would have lost to Buffalo had the Buffalo defense been healthy.”
How can you be “pretty sure”? We can all bring up mitigating factors. ” If this, then that” can go on ad infinitum. Everyone can make whatever excuses and theories they want, but the best team won.
It’s not like the Buffalo players were taken outside and shot before the game. They broke down throughout the course of the playoffs, something that could have happened to any team.
Whatever helps you sleep at night.
Ummm, no, not in 2003-04.
Your statement directly implied that Tampa was first in the East because they were in the Southeast, even though their record shows that such was not the case. I was taking issue with and refuting that, just as I’ve done many times since June of 2004.
Thanks for backing me up on calling the Atlantic the weakest Division, by the way. Clearly, since Tampa got the bulk of their points from the Atlantic rather than the Southeast, the Atlantic was really the “easiest division” in 03-04.
I am pretty sure they would have lost to Buffalo had the Buffalo defense been healthy.
And I am pretty sure that were ifs and buts candies and nuts, we’d all have a happy Yule. What’s your point?
If we went .500 against the Wild, we’d have been sitting in the middle of the WC pack. Funny how little things like that work. Also, if our goaltending (and the coach’s handling thereof) hadn’t shit the crease for an alarming amount of the season, we’d have won the division.
In ‘04, by the way, we were Calgary’s bitch in the RS (I think we were .500 against NW teams not from Calgary). At least this year, we improved to something like 3-5.